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National Weather Service

Helena Zone Forecast

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 50 TO 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND

SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 30 TO 35. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW

SHOWERS. HIGHS 45 TO 55. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS 25 TO 30.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND

SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 35 TO 45.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 25.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW

SHOWERS. HIGHS 35 TO 45.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 40 TO 50.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW

SHOWERS. HIGHS 40 TO 45.

HELENA CLIMATE SUMMARY

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000

CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1866 TO 2009

YESTERDAY

TEMPERATURE (F)

MAXIMUM 50 516 PM 67 1999 46 4 59 1935

MINIMUM 26 657 AM -13 1906 23 3 22

AVERAGE 38 35 3 41

PRECIPITATION (IN)

YESTERDAY 0.00 0.36 1927 0.02 -0.02 0.00

MONTH TO DATE 0.09 0.28 -0.19 0.15

SINCE OCT 1 2.06 2.78 -0.72 2.78

SINCE JAN 1 0.73 1.18 -0.45 0.77

SNOWFALL (IN)

YESTERDAY 0.0

MONTH TO DATE 0.1

SINCE MAR 1 0.1

SINCE JUL 1 26.1

SNOW DEPTH 0

DEGREE DAYS

HEATING

YESTERDAY 27 31 -4 24

MONTH TO DATE 379 457 -78 557

SINCE MAR 1 379 457 -78 557

SINCE JUL 1 6235 6325 -90 5622

COOLING

YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0

MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0

SINCE MAR 1 0 0 0 0

SINCE JAN 1 0 0 0 0

WIND (MPH)

HIGHEST WIND SPEED 10 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION W (250)

HIGHEST GUST SPEED 14 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION E (70)

AVERAGE WIND SPEED 5.1

SKY COVER

POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM

AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1

WEATHER CONDITIONS

THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)

HIGHEST 92 700 AM

LOWEST 32 400 PM

AVERAGE 62

THE HELENA MT CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY

NORMAL RECORD YEAR

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 46 72 1994

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 23 -20 1906

SUNRISE AND SUNSET

MARCH 15 2010.........SUNRISE 741 AM MDT SUNSET 734 PM MDT

MARCH 16 2010.........SUNRISE 739 AM MDT SUNSET 735 PM MDT

- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.

R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.

MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.

T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

Forecast Discussion

and Aviation Report

from the National Weather Service

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO

MOVE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW

DEVELOPING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGH

TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOUDS WILL

GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND TROUGH OF LOW

PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE

WEAKENING DYNAMICS AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN

WEST...HOWEVER PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT

PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN

CHANCE CATEGORY. WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL ALSO SUPPORT

GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BUT

HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. INCREASING CLOUDS

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER

DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE

AVERAGE. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST

MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE

LIMITED...INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SW MOUNTAINS.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED RUMBLE

OF THUNDER...HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE

CURRENT FORECAST. ON THURSDAY...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CHANGES

OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A

DESCENDING COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. AMOUNT OF COOLER AIR...TIMING

AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE

VALLEYS/PLAINS AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED BUT

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE. MLS

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS

ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SO HAVE CONTINUED TO

INCREASE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER

TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE CONTINENTAL

DIVIDE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE

REGION AND BOTH MODELS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT

PRECIPITATION. AS POCKETS OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE

FLOW...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAIN

AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED

PRECIPITATION BOTH LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND

OF DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH

SUNDAY BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A

WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A MORE

MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY

STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AT MOST

LOCATIONS. GUSTAFSON

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH OVER THE AREA.

LEANED TOWARDS EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPUT FOR TEMPS WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY

COLDER THAN GFS ENSEMBLES AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS. PRECIPITATION WAS

KEPT SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO DUE A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER CENTRAL

MONTANA BOTH MAJOR MODELS THAT INCREASES THE CHANCE OF ENHANCED

INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS DURING THESE TWO DAYS. SUK

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED 0500Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS AS

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH BROKEN HIGH

CLOUDS PERSISTING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MILK

RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY EAST OF HAVRE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING. HOENISCH